Kentucky Derby 133
Posted by mike on May 4th, 2007
Well, it’s time for the Kentucky Derby (tomorrow!), and I’m just now looking over the field. In past years I’ve been able to take a bit more time with my picks, and it has worked well for me. In the past four years, I’ve picked two winners (Smarty Jones and Barbaro) and a 3rd-place pick I can’t recall. The only year I got routed was 2005, when Giacomo came out of no-where. In fact, I still have my winning ticket ($20) for Smarty Jones!
Anyhow, on to this year… like I said, I haven’t really had time to look this one over well. It has been rainy the past few days, and very well may rain tonight. That means the track will be a bit slow. But Churchill drains well, and it’s more about distance and stamina. Most of these horses have never gone this far.
One horse I really like is Curlin. He has the potential to blow this race wide open, but he breaks from the 2nd pole and did not run as a two-year-old. He may get crowded at the start, but if any horse has the potential to pull one of those long come-from-behind runs, it’s this one.
I also think Street Sense is a good horse, and has potential breaking from the 7th pole. He has an affinity for Churchill (home track) and should run well. In fact, he or Curlin may go off as the post-time favorites. If he has a knock, it appears as though it may be a lazy streak.
Tiago is the horse I would bet on as a longshot. He will break wide from the 15th pole, but that should help him avoid traffic. He has the looks of a distance horse, and may track down the leader in the stretch. I don’t know if he has what it takes to run away with it, though.
Finally, there’s Scat Daddy. He will go from the 14th position, and has all the qualifications of a Derby contender. It also appears he can go the distance and break a good lead. I don’t like that he hasn’t raced in over a month, but right now he’s my favorite.
I’m really hard pressed not to pick Curlin, but if someone reading this goes to the Oaks or Derby, put down $10 on Scat Daddy to win for me and I’ll pay you back with my earnings. =)
May 6th, 2007 at 8:42 pm
Boy… was I wrong… and right! Seeing as how Scat Daddy finished in 18th place, I guess I can say my pick did not win this year. At least I didn’t have any money riding on the race. BUT, if you tuned into any of the other four horses I mentioned, particularly Street Sense (the winner!) or Curlin (3rd place!), then I guess I didn’t do too badly. At first I thought it was looking good… Scat Daddy was stalking, and Street Sense was bringing up the rear in 19th place. But he mounted a textbook come-from-behind win to finish more than 2 lengths in the lead. And for those keeping track, my “longshot” Tiago didn’t run too badly… he was moving up toward the end but came up short (7th).
Good race this year!!