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It’s time for the 135th running of the Kentucky Derby! Tomorrow is the day, and I’ll be honest and admit I haven’t really payed much attention this year. I’ve just been way too busy to follow which horses are in and out, etc. In fact, about the ONLY way I’ve celebrated this year was to eat a bunch of fried stuff at the chow wagon. But I ate a lot of fried vegetables (which were awesome!), so that has to count for something, right?

Anyhow, I took a quick gander at the field this morning so I could at least make my annual pick. Not much time for any real data crunching, so I’m going to make this years picks from 5,000 feet. The field is large this year with 20 horses, so it wasn’t easy to choose one. That said, here’s what I came up with:

Win (1): Dunkirk
Place (2): I Want Revenge Papa Clem
Show (3): Musket Man

I usually heavily favor the winner of the Florida Derby to run well in the Kentucky Derby. This year, that horse was “Quality Road”, but that horse was unfortunately scratched from the Derby with foot problems. Dunkirk, a really pretty gray colt, finished 2nd in the Florida Derby, but did not race as a 2yr-old. That makes him a stretch pick, though he does have an experienced jockey. He’s a “come from behind” horse which usually plays well in the Derby, but I think the track conditions will have a big impact. I Want Revenge is likely to be one of the favorites at post time. He has a lot of speed and has run well on dirt (most of these horses are raced on synthetic track now), so he should be at least pushing the field at the end if not perhaps even leading it. Faviorites don’t always do that well, though. Musket Man is going off at long odds right now (20-1 as of this post), but has won a few races pretty solidly. His biggest knock is that his breeding isn’t known for distance runners, but that’s been overcome before. 

Unless it’s pouring rain, I expect this to be a pretty fast race with Regal Ransom and Papa Clem setting the pace. If it’s sloppy wet, then anything can happen!

Enjoy the race, and feel free to post your pick here in the comments section!

Update: As of this morning, ”I Want Revenge” has been scratched! I’ll move Papa Clem into the top three, as I don’t have any time to look back over the whole field.